The election may be over, but the real question remains: who won? With less than 30 days until Election (Counting) Day, as it is often called, the outcome is essentially already determined. Although polls don’t provide a clear winner, most voters have already made up their minds, and many have cast their ballots. By November 5th, it’s estimated that more than half of those intending to vote will have done so. The winning name is already figuratively sealed in an envelope, waiting to be opened. The only remaining factor that can influence the result is the effectiveness of get-out-the-vote efforts.
However, what continues is the analysis of polls and the speculation about the winner. It’s similar to the Oscars—everyone engages in pre-show predictions, even though the winners are already decided. As an election analyst, I spend a lot of time reviewing polling data. Before delving into my own forecast for the 2024 election, it’s important to explain how I arrive at these conclusions.
Polls, like a medical thermometer, only provide part of the picture. They don’t reveal everything, but they are one of the few empirical tools available. This presents several challenges: the sheer volume of polls, the varying accuracy among them, and how the results are spun by different political stakeholders. Partisan actors, including campaigns and the media, often interpret data in ways that favor their preferred candidate. The most reliable polls are those of “likely voters,” which professional analysts focus on more than general public or registered voter polls.
The closer an election, the more amplified these issues become. On any given day, conflicting headlines emerge: one suggesting Trump is gaining ground, another indicating Harris is. This is the case today, making objective analysis all the more crucial to cut through the spin.
Polling results are only valid for a short time after voters are surveyed. By the time they’re published, they’re already outdated. Only a select few polls are considered reliable enough to inform judgments about an election, and even then, they reflect only a brief moment in time.
Now, let’s examine the current numbers. Despite all the polling, most results are within the margin of error, meaning we can’t definitively say who is leading, either nationally or in the critical battleground states. Yet, some trends hint at underlying realities.
Before President Biden’s withdrawal, the numbers painted a bleak picture for him. Polls showed that Trump was poised to defeat Biden decisively, with down-ballot Democrats facing significant losses as well. Biden’s own bravado about being the only person who could beat Trump seemed increasingly unfounded. When Kamala Harris stepped in, she briefly leveled the playing field, but she has struggled to gain the expected momentum. Her poll numbers have stayed within the margin of error against Trump, with both candidates fluctuating slightly.
At this moment, Harris holds a narrow lead in the popular vote, 51 to 49 percent. But as we know, the presidency is not decided by popular vote. Instead, the key to victory lies in the battleground states, and the situation there is far more uncertain. Both candidates have seen their fortunes rise and fall in various states, making it impossible to declare a clear frontrunner. On some days, it seems Harris has the edge; on others, Trump appears closer to the necessary 270 electoral votes.
However, a micro-trend is beginning to favor Trump. His numbers are inching up, while Harris’ are slightly declining, even if they remain within the margin of error. Other data points also suggest that Trump may be gaining the upper hand.
One of the most telling indicators is the public’s perception of the country’s direction. A little over a third of Americans think the U.S. is heading in the right direction, a bad sign for the party in power. According to CNN’s Harry Enten, when that number falls this low—currently at 37 percent—the incumbent party almost always loses. This is a troubling signal for Harris and the Democrats’ chances of maintaining control of Congress.
Additionally, Trump is seen as more capable of handling the top issues on voters’ minds: the economy, immigration, and crime. He has consistently held the advantage on these issues throughout the campaign. While Democrats perform better on topics like abortion and defending democracy, voters typically prioritize economic concerns over social ones. For Harris to win, she needs voters to overlook their pressing concerns and focus on personal fears or dislike of Trump.
History also suggests that Trump may outperform his polling numbers, as he did in both 2016 and 2020. In both elections, Trump did significantly better in the final vote count than polls indicated at this point in the race. Many voters, especially among minority groups like Black and Hispanic voters, as well as suburban women, may be reluctant to publicly admit their support for Trump but still cast their ballots for him. This year, disillusioned Jewish voters, unhappy with Democrats’ stance on Israel, may also fall into this category.
Harris’ path to victory relies on convincing voters to fear Trump more than they care about the pressing issues of the day, as well as outpacing the GOP in get-out-the-vote efforts. With most voters already decided, turnout will be the determining factor.
Taking everything into account, while it’s not a certainty that Trump will win, the odds seem to be tilting in his favor. I wouldn’t bet my life on it, but I’d definitely bet a beer.