New York City, traditionally a Democratic stronghold, may be showing signs of shifting toward former President Trump as growing concerns over migrant-related crime and frustration with Democratic policies resonate with voters in the city and surrounding suburbs.
Two key suburban areas—Nassau and Suffolk counties—are now leaning Republican, signaling potential gains for Trump in the upcoming election, according to political insiders. Both counties, historically leaning Democrat, swung decisively toward the GOP during the 2022 midterm elections, despite Democrats holding a registration advantage.
This political shift in these areas could serve as an indicator of broader trends across similar communities in New York State and beyond.
In the 2020 election, Trump won Suffolk County by a slim margin of fewer than 250 votes. However, the 2022 midterms saw Republican candidates win decisively in both Suffolk and neighboring Nassau County, which borders New York City. The victories were seen in both local and congressional races.
Bruce Blakeman, Nassau County Executive and a Republican, attributed the shift to growing dissatisfaction with the Democratic leadership at both the state and federal levels. He cited issues like cashless bail and unsecured borders as reasons for the frustration, adding, “We’re spending billions on people who have been here for 15 minutes rather than investing in hospitals, infrastructure, and schools. People have had enough.”
Blakeman further emphasized that Trump’s messaging resonates with suburban voters, who are becoming increasingly disillusioned with Democratic policies.
“Moderate Democrats and independents are turning toward the Republican Party because they’re fed up with the Biden-Harris administration’s policies,” Blakeman said.
The state’s governor, Kathy Hochul, also faces declining popularity, which could work in Trump’s favor. According to a recent Siena College poll, Hochul’s favorability rating among New Yorkers has fallen below Trump’s. During a recent rally, Trump hinted at the possibility of former U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin, a Republican from Suffolk County who narrowly lost the gubernatorial race to Hochul, playing a significant role in his administration should he return to the White House.
Polls indicate that crime, particularly violent crime associated with migrants, taxes, and the economy are top concerns for voters. In Suffolk County, where Trump’s Justice Department had been heavily involved in efforts to combat MS-13 gang violence, the local police union, the Suffolk PBA, was the first police organization in New York to endorse Trump’s 2024 re-election bid.
Many voters also blame the Biden administration for reversing Trump’s “remain-in-Mexico” policy, which they argue has contributed to a surge in crime in sanctuary cities like New York City. The influx of migrants and the resulting strain on resources have left some New Yorkers reconsidering their political allegiances, providing an opening for Trump to make inroads in traditionally blue areas.
